I'm playing 2 tables, and I get dealt pocket Aces at both tables at the same time.
What are the odds of this happening?
What are the odds of this happening twice in the same night? (Yes, it really happened twice tonight.)
Pocket Aces at two table simultaneously
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Pocket Aces at two table simultaneously
by stickdude » Sun Dec 04, 2005 12:34 am
"My name is Inigo Montoya. You cracked my Aces... prepare to die"
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stickdude - Posts: 2155
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by k3nt » Mon Dec 05, 2005 11:00 am
You're playing only and exactly 2 tables? That makes life easier than if you were 4 tabling.
1 in 221^2 for it to happen once = about 1 in 48,000. That was easy.
Oops! Thinking a little more, it's not that easy. Hands don't usually roll around at the exact same moment. Normally you get a hand at table 1, then a new hand at table 2, then a new hand at table 1, then a new hand at table 2, etc. The odds that two of these "overlapping" hands would be AA at the same time would be about 1 in 24,000: once you get AA on one board, you have two chances to be dealt AA on the other table. And if your AA hand goes through several streets, maybe you'll be dealt 3 different hands at the other table before you're done playing your AA hand, which would make it happen even more often. I'll say 1 in about 24,000 as my best guess.
For it to happen twice in one night, well, that depends how many hands you played that night. But I'm guessing you won't see it happen even once in 24,000 nights of playing poker.
1 in 221^2 for it to happen once = about 1 in 48,000. That was easy.
Oops! Thinking a little more, it's not that easy. Hands don't usually roll around at the exact same moment. Normally you get a hand at table 1, then a new hand at table 2, then a new hand at table 1, then a new hand at table 2, etc. The odds that two of these "overlapping" hands would be AA at the same time would be about 1 in 24,000: once you get AA on one board, you have two chances to be dealt AA on the other table. And if your AA hand goes through several streets, maybe you'll be dealt 3 different hands at the other table before you're done playing your AA hand, which would make it happen even more often. I'll say 1 in about 24,000 as my best guess.
For it to happen twice in one night, well, that depends how many hands you played that night. But I'm guessing you won't see it happen even once in 24,000 nights of playing poker.
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k3nt - Enthusiast (Online)
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by Juskimo » Thu Dec 29, 2005 12:05 am
I find it hard to believe that this happens once every 65 years.
There has to be a more reasonable figure for this.
-Jus
There has to be a more reasonable figure for this.
-Jus
[23:42] Mekos King: and lookin bck on it all
[23:42] Mekos King: I FEEL RICH JEWISH GUILT
<spank_her_pair> whats everyone up 2?
<stickdude> watching Pok's AA get stomped on by Jus's AK
<PocketSevens> For those who missed it there's proof that when you eat a lot of fish you turn into one
http://juskimo.blogspot.com/
j[d]
[23:42] Mekos King: I FEEL RICH JEWISH GUILT
<spank_her_pair> whats everyone up 2?
<stickdude> watching Pok's AA get stomped on by Jus's AK
<PocketSevens> For those who missed it there's proof that when you eat a lot of fish you turn into one
http://juskimo.blogspot.com/
j[d]
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Juskimo - Rolled up since '05
- Posts: 2188
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- Location: Anchorage, AK
Re: 1 in 221
by emmasdad » Tue Feb 07, 2006 10:35 pm
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emmasdad - Posts: 5287
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by Juskimo » Wed Feb 08, 2006 4:42 am
I think Emmasdad nailed this one. The table # and speed variables really make it hard to calculate. Someone who is 8tabling and takes forever to play any AA hand might see 16-30 other hands each time he plays aces, in which case you could be down to every 3 months or so.
Then again, I went to law school and lawyers are not noted for their math skillz (although I still think emmasdad rocked it out above).
However I think that the 2 year estimate is probably somewhat accurate for a reasonable player.
-Jus
Then again, I went to law school and lawyers are not noted for their math skillz (although I still think emmasdad rocked it out above).
However I think that the 2 year estimate is probably somewhat accurate for a reasonable player.
-Jus
[23:42] Mekos King: and lookin bck on it all
[23:42] Mekos King: I FEEL RICH JEWISH GUILT
<spank_her_pair> whats everyone up 2?
<stickdude> watching Pok's AA get stomped on by Jus's AK
<PocketSevens> For those who missed it there's proof that when you eat a lot of fish you turn into one
http://juskimo.blogspot.com/
j[d]
[23:42] Mekos King: I FEEL RICH JEWISH GUILT
<spank_her_pair> whats everyone up 2?
<stickdude> watching Pok's AA get stomped on by Jus's AK
<PocketSevens> For those who missed it there's proof that when you eat a lot of fish you turn into one
http://juskimo.blogspot.com/
j[d]
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Juskimo - Rolled up since '05
- Posts: 2188
- Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:28 pm
- Location: Anchorage, AK
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