Lesson in flush draw + nut-low draw when the turn bricks

[TomG]

I overplayed this one. Well, it wasn't really overplaying. It was more like underplaying it. But it demonstrates an important lesson in risk vs. reward. When holding something like nut-low draw + nut-flush and the turn card bricks, to make a +EV call on the turn, it's crucial to be confident that the flush draw is live to get close to the equity needed to call a big turn bet offering ~ 2:1 odds. If my flush draw isn't live, then my hand is crippled (in reality, I was even worse since both my flush draw and my low-draws were dead with three separate A2s out there!). Even though in reality I'm in terrible shape, I don't think I can fold the turn getting ~ 3.3:1. I was very fortunate to only lose ~ $45 this hand.

Omaha Hi/Low $2-$4 PL (real money), hand #123,582,206
Table Surabaya, 13 Feb 2006 6:04 PM ET

Seat 1: Vortex2
Seat 2: pancer_kwoka
Seat 3: HotFudge1
Seat 4: _lookout_0
Seat 5: Peeniks
Seat 6: CorneliusRex [ AS,JD,3D,2S ]
Seat 7: pittrounder
Seat 8: judgegammon
Seat 9: predator006
Seat 10: elguapo16
ANTES/BLINDS
CorneliusRex posts blind ($2), pittrounder posts blind ($2), HotFudge1 posts blind ($2), _lookout_0 posts blind ($2).

PRE-FLOP
judgegammon folds, predator006 folds, elguapo16 calls $2, Vortex2 folds, pancer_kwoka bets $10, HotFudge1 folds, _lookout_0 folds, Peeniks folds, CorneliusRex calls $8, pittrounder calls $8, elguapo16 calls $8.

FLOP [board cards 7D,5D,9C ]
CorneliusRex checks, pittrounder checks, elguapo16 bets $30, pancer_kwoka calls $30, CorneliusRex calls $30, pittrounder bets $47.20 and is all-in, elguapo16 calls $17.20, pancer_kwoka calls $17.20, CorneliusRex calls $17.20.

TURN [board cards 7D,5D,9C,QC ]
CorneliusRex checks, elguapo16 bets $100, pancer_kwoka calls $100, CorneliusRex calls $100.

RIVER [board cards 7D,5D,9C,QC,6C ]
CorneliusRex checks, elguapo16 checks, pancer_kwoka checks.

SHOWDOWN
CorneliusRex shows [ AS,JD,3D,2S ]
pittrounder shows [ 2H,3S,4H,AH ]
elguapo16 shows [ 10D,3H,10C,AD ]
pancer_kwoka shows [ KS,AC,KH,2D ]
pancer_kwoka wins $263.30, CorneliusRex wins $113.30, pittrounder wins $153.20.

SUMMARY
Dealer: Peeniks
Pot: $532.80 | Rake: $3
Vortex2 loses $0
pancer_kwoka bets $157.20, collects $263.30, net $106.10
HotFudge1 loses $2
_lookout_0 loses $2
Peeniks loses $0
CorneliusRex bets $157.20, collects $113.30, net $-43.90
pittrounder bets $57.20, collects $153.20, net $96
judgegammon loses $0
predator006 loses $0
elguapo16 loses $157.20

[JDLush]

Once again the 'nut flush/nut low' killer appears (but in this case at least the low showed up). I freakin hate these hands, and lost most of a stack on a $50 table last night with one.

The problem I have is determining how live the flush draw is. If there are 2 other opponents like this, then how many of your outs do you assume are in their hands? Is 3 a good number, assuming someone else is going for a lower flush and the random odds of a suit out of 4 cards in the other hand? Tough to tell.

I think heads up, barring any other reads, this is a fold about 80% of the time (a gutshot or 2 pair would get me to call), but in this case, with the odds you're getting I think you're ok with the call, but only if elguapo and panzershreka have more in their stack to play with and you're pretty sure at least one will call if you hit on the river.

[Felonius_Monk]

That's odd - heads up I'm usually raising this on the flop! I'm much less keen on it multiway because your flush is so much less likely to be clean. What's your thinking on the heads up battle?

Also, having A23 rather than just A2 is worth considerable equity, both heads up and in the multiway spot.

[TomG]