Time to go to war?

[GooperMC]

Game #1577531083: Omaha H/L PL ($0.50/$1) - 2006/02/17 - 01:09:03 (UK)
Table "Gulfport" Seat 8 is the button.
Seat 1: curtains ($74 in chips)
Seat 2: johnnyzee ($39.07 in chips)
Seat 3: Watup ($37.04 in chips)
Seat 4: Vidar_Rgk ($103.75 in chips)
Seat 5: Lexaraf ($11.73 in chips)
Seat 6: Moimeme ($111.27 in chips)
Seat 7: Gwindor ($75.18 in chips)
Seat 8: BuggyBot ($103.50 in chips)
Seat 9: Metric ($99.50 in chips)
Seat 10: gazzaman ($99.06 in chips)
Metric: posts small blind $0.50
gazzaman: posts big blind $1

----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to BuggyBot
curtains: calls $1
johnnyzee: calls $1
Watup: calls $1
Vidar_Rgk: folds
Lexaraf: raises to $6.50
Moimeme: folds
Gwindor: folds
BuggyBot:???

Lexaraf is a bad player, VP$IP 80, PRF 6, WtSD 46. There are no calling stations in the limpers ahead of him. Is this enough of a hand for everyone to go to war with?

[Kuso]

i basically don't go to war pf ever.

first, it's high variance for mariginal EV. second, it takes away my edge -- namely, post flop play. third, if he calls, he probably has AA and you REALLY aren't that far ahead (if you are at all).

[GooperMC]

[Kuso]

as for marginal EV... you might be way ahead or you might be way behind. odds are you are somewhere in the 60/40 to 40/60 range. that's not so exciting to me. furthermore, i think my edge with post flop play is at least that big against most villains.

keep in mind that the values of the hands involved will typically change DRASTICALLY after the flop, so the preflop edge can be fleeting.

so... yes, i cold call.

i only intend to go to war with AA2+wheel. i'd mainly do this to isolate. even then, i wouldn't get too aggressive if i think that it make everyone fold preflop.

[GooperMC]

[Kuso]

[TomG]

I would not re-raise the pot if that's what you're considering. Look at the risk-reward here. You need all 3 limpers to fold. That's crucial. Otherwise the plan fails and you're stuck playing a large pot, out of position with a mostly mediocre hand. In the best case scenerio, you re-raise the pot, everyone folds back to Lexaraf who shoves his remaining chips in the pot. Congrats, all that risk paid off and now you get to enjoy your whopping 60:40 or 55:45 edge (sarcasm). That's not much of a reward for the risk you're taking. If you're almost certain you can get it heads-up, then sure go for it. If you're not so sure, then I wouldn't want to go to war. I warn you because I will limp in EP with some pretty strong A2 hands that I'm never folding to a raise and would even be happy if someone else raised.

Edit: Oops, I thought you were the small-blind in this hand for some reason. You can ignore my comment about being out of position then. I still believe re-raising the pot is marginal, although not as bad as before since the worst case scenerio involves you playing a large pot with position.

[JDLush]

What's wrong with flat calling and letting him bet out on the flop (which it sounds like he will do regardless)?

I think (as TG said above) that you are assuming that you can definitely get heads up, which is not a given (unless I am misreading something). I also don't like the hand as much as you do. The counterfeitability (is that a new word? cool!) of your low is a definite minus, probably offsetting the positive of the double-double-suitedness.

I just realized that lexaref only has $5 left after his raise. I think he needs to be considered a non-factor here and you need to worry more about the guys behind you. 2 have smallish stacks, but one is up there. I really want to see this flop before I commit my stack:

If you get a flush draw on the flop, pump it.
If you get 2 low cards with a 2 or 3, pump it.
If a 4 hits you're done.
If there are 2 lows but no 2 or 3, and any sort of action, you're done.
Obviously you pump if a king hits as well.

I think if the hand was A23K with 2 flush draws it's a different story, but I'd still want to see a flop. I also think that if you get a big raise and at least one call from one of the EP playas then you'd probably have enough equity to call it, but that's just a guess off the top of my head.

O8 is a post flop game, or at least it should be.

[GooperMC]