Variance--or why can't I win?

[Cactus Jack]

[Triple B]

I'm not sure what I can do to help you. Personally, I found the $6 turbos bad beat city, so I stopped playing them. I moved up to the $15s and had a (small sample) ROI of 35%. Then I got cocky, moved up to the $25s. I was doing OK there, and then in November I went on a run like you seem to be on. At one stretch I had 29 SnGs with a grand total of 3 2nd places and that's it. It was sick.

That brought my roll waaaaaaaaaaay down (I think I was at or near 2 digits) and I had to claw my way back. I moved down again and built it back. Since my bad run of the 25s, I have an ROI of about 50% in them (only about 30 tourneys). I have since moved up to the 55s, but I have a mediocre ROI of about 6%. Granted, that includes a run of 19 SnGs with 11 4th place finishes. That is pain.

I believe I am a very good SnG player and long term will have an ROI of 10-15% at the 55s. However, they just aren't that profitable. They are great experience for MTTs, but I just don't think they are the way to make money online. Ring and MTTs will do that for you. Mostly I built my roll to its current level (~$5k) with 2 things:

1) Ring games. I play 1/2 NL and have made several thousand dollers in less than 2 months.

2) 180 man SnGs on Stars. I have played 55 of them so far, with an ROI of 156%. 10 final tables. And I haven't won one yet. I believe a decent-good player can easily maintain a 100% ROI in these things long term. They are a gold mine if you know how to play solid tournament poker.

My advice, if ring games are not for you, is to stick with the SnGs. Play the 15s if you can afford it and use some of your winnings to take a shot at the 180 mans. Another option is to give up on the turbos and try something where your skill can be more of an advantage (ie the regular SnGs). Personally I like the turbos, as they are quick and I am good at short stack poker. I suspect you are the same.

Another option is to try another site for a while. Full Tilt has a decent bonus and their low level SnGs are easy to beat. The bilnd structure is good too.

[Cactus Jack]

[Cactus Jack]

[Triple B]

[Triple B]

Here's an example from the 180s. LMAO. Watch out for the donks, they'll get you sometimes.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed)

UTG (t5898)
UTG+1 (t1480)
Hero (t1983)
MP2 (t1970)
MP3 (t3391)
CO (t2877)
Button (t1190)
SB (t2140)
BB (t2251)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , .
UTG calls t50, UTG+1 calls t50, Hero raises to t200, 2 folds, CO calls t200, 1 fold, SB calls t175, BB calls t150, UTG calls t150, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: (t1050) , , (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets t850, Hero raises to t1783, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls t933.

Turn: (t4616) (2 players)

River: (t4616) (2 players)

Final Pot: t4616

Results in white below:
UTG has 4c 3d (straight, five high).
Hero has As Ac (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: UTG wins t4616.

[tommyhawk]

[flafishy]

Sorry I haven't contributed to this thread up to now. But I'm going through the same damn thing CJ is. Have been since around Thanksgiving. I'm at a point that I don't play many SnGs any more just because I now consider them a black hole for my bankroll. I'm not exaggerating when I tell you that I have not finished first in a NLHE SnG in 2006. I've only been able to manage a couple of seconds and a few thirds among long OTM stretches.

And thanks, tommyhawk, for putting it in perspective. I know you're right. I keep telling myself that same thing. But every time I decide to jump into the ring again, I get nailed in Level 3 by someone hitting their gutshot straight or nailing trips on the river with bottom pair or something. Or I'll be cruising along nicely and then get crippled or knocked out by people calling my pushes and nailing their J-high flush draw or whatever.

But it is nice to read that it's just not me, CJ. And it is great to read some words of encouragement, tommyhawk. It does help my mood. Now let's see if I can get my game back on track.

[Cactus Jack]