PLO8 - tough turn fold (Part II)

[TomG]

Well, wtf this game seems intent on grilling me with some difficult turn card decisions. After flubbing it last time, I have another chance to redeem myself... What do you do and why? My thoughts and 2dimes #s to follow...

Game #1597685063: Omaha H/L PL ($1/$2) - 2006/02/18 - 20:43:25 (UK)
Table "Assault" Seat 3 is the button.
Seat 1: mr.drunk ($53.75 in chips)
Seat 2: yzophlm ($231.41 in chips)
Seat 3: LoudCat ($209 in chips)
Seat 4: SomeFool ($160.75 in chips)
Seat 5: _lookout_ ($293.16 in chips)
Seat 6: ZLadyDi ($48.75 in chips)
Seat 7: Jumanji ($100 in chips)
Seat 9: IanR ($24.93 in chips)
Seat 10: ferg1 ($136.25 in chips)
SomeFool: posts small blind $1
_lookout_: posts big blind $2
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to SomeFool
ZLadyDi: folds
Jumanji: calls $2
IanR: calls $2
ferg1: calls $2
mr.drunk: raises to $4
yzophlm: folds
LoudCat: calls $4
SomeFool: calls $3
_lookout_: calls $2
Jumanji: calls $2
IanR: calls $2
ferg1: calls $2
----- FLOP -----
SomeFool: checks
_lookout_: checks
Jumanji: checks
IanR: checks
ferg1: checks
mr.drunk: checks
LoudCat: bets $10
SomeFool: calls $10
_lookout_: calls $10
Jumanji: calls $10
IanR: folds
ferg1: calls $10
mr.drunk: folds
----- TURN ----- [Jd]
SomeFool: checks
_lookout_: checks
Jumanji: bets $78
ferg1: raises to $122.25 and is all-in
LoudCat: folds
SomeFool:

[Kuso]

[GooperMC]

I think the turn is a tough fold; however I t think the flop is an easy one.

Flop
You have middle set OOP, on a board with a flush draw, a low draw, and a ton of str8 draws. You don't have much invested and there are about 3 turn cards you want to see so I would happily fold.

Turn
Since both players ahead of you checked called the flop, then woke up on the turn I think that your boat outs are clean. However, it is hard to think of 2 hands that your opponents could like this much that you are not in trouble against. I think the ever wise Kuso said that in a 3 way pot against 2 players who really like their hands you need a ton of outs to continue. I don't think you have a ton of outs.

[Kuso]

[Felonius_Monk]

[TomG]

Flop
I actually liked the way I played my hand on the flop. I'm not about to just give up immediately with middle set, although I'm willing to slow down and fold if the action dictates it. Until then, I'd like to see a turn card to see if I can boat up and/or catch a high offsuit turn card so I can push. I admit it's dangerous and it's not the greatest situation to be in, but I figure it's reasonable to see a turn card. I was quite pleased to see 3(!!) other people call behind me.

Turn
I thought this was a reasonably good turn card. I considered leading out for the pot, but I decided against it and opted to see what others did first. Two players decide to go to war. I was pretty sure my boat outs were clean. That gave me some decent equity along with the nut-flush draw, but my low draw was screwed. It probably wouldn't be a terrible call, but I figured at best I have just about my fair share and at worst I'm getting killed so I folded. Here's the rest of the hand and the twodimes...

----- TURN -----
SomeFool: checks
_lookout_: checks
Jumanji: bets $78
ferg1: raises to $122.25 and is all-in
LoudCat: folds
SomeFool: folds
_lookout_: folds
Jumanji: is all-in $8
Returned uncalled bets $36.25 to ferg1
----- RIVER -----
----- SHOW DOWN -----
ferg1: shows (A Straight, Jack high)
Jumanji: shows (A Straight, Jack high)
Jumanji collects $123.50 from Main pot
ferg1 collects $123.50 from Main pot

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1535849
pokenum -o8 3d 7h ad 7s - 3c 2h 8h 9c - 8d 9h as kd -- th 7d 3h jd
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Jd 7d Th 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s Ad 3d 7h 10 14 22 0 0 0 0 0.333
9c 3c 8h 2h 3 6 16 14 2 12 0 0.271
As Kd 8d 9h 2 2 20 14 15 0 0 0.396

So it would have been very slightly +EV I believe given the size of the pot, but marginally so. Does anyone call if the heros hand instead is ? Would you lead out for the pot on the turn holding this hand? I also assume everyone is calling with ?

[Kuso]

ugh... i didn't realize jumanji played junk like that.... and ferg1 is on the buddy list.

A277... absolutely call.

A3TT.... well, i've been burned too many times buy someone hitting their PP for me to say that TT still makes top set with two all-ins ahead of me. i don't think your twodimes numbers really change that much, although you're a bit more certain that you set is top set.


this is more of a worst case scenario, but you see how screwed you can get if your set is not good and a low draw is out:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1536837
pokenum -o8 3d 7h ad 7s - ac 2h 4s 9h - 8d 9c td tc -- th 7d 3h jd
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Jd 7d Th 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s Ad 3d 7h 3 7 29 0 0 0 0 0.139
4s Ac 9h 2h 7 7 29 0 19 0 0 0.389
Tc 9c Td 8d 12 22 14 0 0 0 0 0.472

[Felonius_Monk]

[Kuso]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1537218
pokenum -o8 3d 7h ad 7s - ac qh ts td - 8d 9c kd as -- th 7d 3h jd
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 36 enumerated boards containing Jd 7d Th 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s Ad 3d 7h 3 7 29 0 0 0 0 0.139
Ts Ac Td Qh 9 9 27 0 0 0 0 0.250
As 9c Kd 8d 20 20 16 0 16 0 0 0.611


less unrealistic cards with a similar result.

my point is that the times you are dominated more than take away any marginal edge when your not... at least imo.

HU you don't really like your hand either.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1537225
pokenum -o8 3d 7h ad 7s - 8d 9c kd as -- th 7d 3h jd
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Jd 7d Th 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s Ad 3d 7h 11 15 25 0 0 0 0 0.325
As 9c Kd 8d 25 25 15 0 16 0 0 0.675


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1537226
pokenum -o8 3d 7h ad 7s - ac qh ts td -- th 7d 3h jd
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 40 enumerated boards containing Jd 7d Th 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
7s Ad 3d 7h 9 9 31 0 0 0 0 0.225
Ts Ac Td Qh 31 31 9 0 0 0 0 0.775