Nut low draw + OESD Raise now or later?

[GooperMC]

Game #1657543623: Omaha H/L PL ($0.50/$1) - 2006/02/24 - 01:51:08 (UK)
Table "Gulfport" Seat 3 is the button.
Seat 2: trutje ($33 in chips)
Seat 3: Metric ($98.87 in chips)
Seat 4: donator ($116.12 in chips)
Seat 5: jester ($28.26 in chips)
Seat 6: Mmmmkitty ($80 in chips)
Seat 7: vheissu ($59.01 in chips)
Seat 8: DAVEMAC ($106 in chips)
Seat 9: Theant180 ($80.62 in chips)
Seat 10: renken36 ($21.01 in chips)
donator: posts small blind $0.50
jester: posts big blind $1

----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Mmmmkitty
Mmmmkitty: calls $1
vheissu: folds
DAVEMAC: folds
Theant180: raises to $2
renken36: folds
trutje: folds
Metric: folds
donator: folds
jester: calls $1
Mmmmkitty: calls $1

----- FLOP -----
jester: checks
Mmmmkitty: checks
Theant180: bets $6.50
jester: calls $6.50
Mmmmkitty: ????

Theant180 is tight pre-flop but can't lay down a hand post flop, his stats PFR 2, VP$IP 31, WtSD 53. Jester is a joke (pun intended), his stats are VP$IP 46, WtSD 35.

What is your play?

[JDLush]

I really hate to spend any money drawing to a str8 with a flush draw out. You are down to 6 outs on the OESD and have poor counterfeit protection on the low. You may even need to lower the 6 outs to 4 or 5 because there's the very real possibility that you'll hit your str8 and the flush will hit on the river.

If theant has another A2 hand (very possible after a pfr) you aren't sitting pretty. I *may* throw a 1/2 pot bet out there if I'm first to act, but I don't like calling a 3 way when it looks like I may very well be getting 1/4 if I hit. I probably lay it down.

[TomG]

I would not want to risk re-opening the betting by putting in any kind of raise. Calling will create a nice, but manageable sized pot on the turn of ~ $26. That's right around where you want it to be to give you enough ammo if you hit your straight but small enough to leave you some chips to give you some implied odds to see a river card, assuming you're still interested in doing so after the turn. Folding seems out of the question. Your hand might not be a monster, but you have a reasonable draw to continue getting 3:1 on your money with lots of betting left to be done if you can catch a good card.

[GooperMC]

Honestly folding didn’t even cross my mind (and I am surprised it crossed other peoples). This pot is getting large and I have a big piece of it.

pokenum -o8 ad 2d 7d 9c - ah 2h qd kd -- ts 3h 8h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts 8h 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
9c Ad 7d 2d 70 225 553 42 142 0 447 0.400
Kd Qd Ah 2h 187 553 225 42 0 48 447 0.600

pokenum -o8 ad 2d 7d 9c - ah ac 2c kd -- ts 3h 8h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts 8h 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
9c Ad 7d 2d 99 303 500 17 108 0 459 0.438
Ac 2c Kd Ah 184 500 303 17 0 36 459 0.562

pokenum -o8 ad 2d 7d 9c - ah ac 4c kd -- ts 3h 8h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts 8h 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
9c Ad 7d 2d 279 324 496 0 459 108 0 0.520
Ac 4c Kd Ah 247 496 324 0 108 361 0 0.480

pokenum -o8 ad 2d 7d 9c - ah 2c 3c kd -- ts 3h 8h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts 8h 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
9c Ad 7d 2d 139 423 381 16 142 0 447 0.544
3c 2c Kd Ah 136 381 423 16 0 48 447 0.456

This seems like a low PP in HE. If I hit I will really be able to hurt someone and if I brick (like turning a ) it will be easy to get away from.

This

[Kuso]

you're not HU, so your equity will be very different.

i like a call here and reevaluate on the turn. i think you have way too much equity to even consider folding. i would hope that you hit something on the turn and can put the squeeze on jester. even if you whiff, theant might slow down if he is on a draw.

pushing is possible but high varaince... similar to your low PP in HE example.


[edited for punctuation]

[JDLush]

Ok, but what about when you run the numbers 3 way, as it looks like you'll be in this hand?

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1548250
pokenum -o8 9c ad 7d 2d - ah 2h 4d jc - tc 3c 5d kd -- ts 8h 3h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Ts 8h 3h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
9c Ad 7d 2d 22 120 537 9 12 126 338 0.246
Jc 4d Ah 2h 104 253 404 9 126 12 338 0.461
Tc 3c Kd 5d 107 284 382 0 0 77 0 0.294

At best I can see taking one off, but outside of your 6 outs, what is going to hit on the turn that you want to potentially commit at least 1/4 of your stack to? Keeping in mind that there are quite a few cards that can blow both your high and low on the river. If the low comes and it's potted and called you have to figure you are getting 1/4 at best the vast majority of the time. If a Jack hits and it's potted can you think you are not up against Q9 someplace?

I think this is a lot like my ooops hand from last night, and we all agree that I played that badly, however, at least in that case I had potential fold equity on the flop, where here you are calling along with one counterfeitable draw to half the pot and another draw to a non nut str8. I will say that I don't like doing much beyond taking one off, and I think it's dependent on the amount of endorphins in my system whether or not I do that.

[Felonius_Monk]

[GooperMC]

I was just showing those two dimes numbers to show that your hand it too good to fold.

I did call and the turn was a and I check folded.