Take the free card or go for the pot now?

[briachek]

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $105.15
UTG+1: $84.20
MP1: $39.50
MP2: $59
MP3: $29
Hero: $133
Button: $89
SB: $332.35
BB: $96

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $4, 3 folds, UTG calls $3.

Flop: ($13.5, 3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets $12.85, Hero calls $12.85, UTG calls $12.85.

Turn: ($52.05, 3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero ???

I may or may not be ahead but you would think that without KT, no one can call and even if they do, i should have plenty of outs assuming that UTG is not slowplaying a HUGE hand like AAKT.

[Aisthesis]

I think I have to bet this.

Worst case scenario would be AA, in which case you have 8 flush outs (not the J if he has AA), then any T for an additional 3, hence 11 outs. If someone has KT, then you have 10 outs to fill up (presumably less, since I think someone does have AJ), and an additional 8 to make your flush.

But you're also ahead of everything except AA and KT, and the latter is at least less likely in light of your own KK.

I think potting it to rep KT yourself is a good plan (calling for stack obviously if you get re-raised). In theory, AA should lay down and KT should come back over the top.

I could also maybe see a half-pottish bet here, too, like maybe $20. If you get re-raised, you should be dealing with KT imo. If you get a call, you should be dealing with AA (I think the raiser has some kind of AJ, however). I really think you're ahead, though. I feel like the raiser was making more of a CB than really having AA a lot of the time--maybe AJ.

I think potting clarifies the situation better than the smaller bet in this case. Then, if they don't lay down, you can call pretty much any river due to pot-size. The worst card in the deck for you is imo another A--and in that case, I think you're almost always beat if someone bets at you. But I still don't think I could lay down if UTG bet his last $25 at me in a $200 pot.

Anyhow, while my suggestions may well be wrong, I think these are the kind of boards where you get your real profits in this game--with a very strong non-nut hand but draws to various nut-like hands.

Great hand for discussion!

[Aisthesis]

One other thing: The reason I don't like just taking the free card here is that only the flush gives you the true nuts on the river. And if you make it, no one is going to call you anyway.

[briachek]

[Aisthesis]

That's true.

While a lot of players for some reason get into slowplaying, I think it would at least be incredibly stupid for anyone to have KT and check on that board. So, that leaves AA, which may or may not lay down if you bet (less than AA, and I think they MUST fold, and if they don't, great--you have the best hand if they have anything less than that).

I guess the other dimension to this is that I think you probably have the best hand here, and you may have some fold equity against AA.

Results? This is an extremely interesting hand, I think.

[briachek]

before i give results, another thing. I don't think the first guy has AA because he would have either lead or check raised the flop (at least you would think). Also, the preflop raiser is too short to fold AA so if he had it, I think he would just push so I don't think AA is out there. However, AQ and AJ might be out there as well as the straight from the first guy. I'm not worried about the short stack because if he had anything, he would push so He's got AQJ, some sort of two pair and gutshot at best. Its the other guy with the full stack that is my only concern.

The problem with betting the full pot is that you would think only a better hand would call or raise me in his position and I artificially give myself odds to chase. Checking also doesn't protect my hand too because it could be the best hand. Betting a lesser amount really doesn't help too much as to make a real bet, i still pretty much commit myself to an all in so that could just be getting too greedy by betting less.

[Felonius_Monk]

[briachek]