How often will I get called here?

[Ojingo]

$200 PLO on UB. Opponent has $130, I cover. No strong reads; opponent seems to be a bit tight pf but makes a continuation bet every time he raises pf. I have been playing tight and haven't been caught stealing.

I get [Ad][4h][5c] in MP and limp. Opponent in LP raises max. Folds to me, I call.

Flop comes [7d][2c]. I check, opponent bets pot I checkraise allin.

+ or - EV??

[briachek]

[Kuso]

with that read, i'd be happy to repot and curse if he has QQ.

as bri said, the board is pretty bare, and you are only beat by QQ or something like 7JQK that hit 2pr. low likelihood of this.

[Aisthesis]

Yeah, even without the fold equity, I think it's a good play. Vs. QQ you're obviously in bad shape, but it's going to be rare that he has it in conjunction with your read. I also don't see why he should have 2 pair very often, and if he does, you're not in horrible shape.

If he calls with a naked Q and 3 live cards, you're at least ahead, although he has lots of outs.

I think you'll win more than you lose with this play.

[m9man]